Okay, here’s my attempt at writing a blog post in the style you described, about the “mainz vs union berlin prediction” topic, using only the tools and formatting you specified:

Alright, so I wanted to figure out who’s gonna win this Mainz vs. Union Berlin match. I’m no expert, just a guy who likes to mess around with data and see what shakes out. So, here’s how I did it, step-by-step, and yeah, it was kinda messy.
Digging for Clues
First, I had to get my hands on some, you know, info. Stats, recent games, who’s injured, that sort of thing. Basic stuff. I just started by looking for past results.
I hit up some usual websites for seeing the past records.
My Makeshift “Model”
I wrote down a bunch of stuff in my notes. Like, who won the last few times they played, how many goals they usually score, and all that.
Then I started put the numbers.

- Mainz’s Home Advantage? Checked if they play better at home.
- Union Berlin’s Away Game? Same thing, but for Union Berlin when they’re on the road.
- Injured Players? Which team had more players benched?
Then did a quick comparing, the data by hand.
The “Prediction”
After all that, I stared at my notes for a good while. And here is my thinking, it could totally go the other way. But based on my very, very basic “analysis”, I’m thinking, It’s a very close game.
I write down who will win on my notes, and check it when the game finished, and that it!